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20101019142812.0 |
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|a2010292618
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|a081297381X (pbk.) :|cNT|452
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|a9780812973815 (pbk.)
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|aNTTU|bG|cE031464|d003.54|eT143|pBOOK|y2010|fSJCHEN|zBOOK|m452|tDDC
|
100 |
1
|
|aTaleb, Nassim.
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245 |
14
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|aThe black swan :|bthe impact of the highly improbable /|cNassim Nicholas Taleb.
|
250 |
|
|a2nd ed., Random trade pbk. ed.
|
260 |
|
|aNew York :|bRandom House Trade Paperbacks,|cc2010.
|
300 |
|
|axxxiii, 444 p. :|bill. ;|c21 cm.
|
500 |
|
|a"Originally published in hardcover and in slightly different form in the United States ... by Random House in 2007."-T.p. verso.
|
504 |
|
|aIncludes bibliographical references (p. [400]-429) and index.
|
505 |
0
|
|aPrologue -- Umberto Eco’s antilibrary, or how we seek validation. The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic ; Yevgenia’s black swan ; The speculator and the prostitute ; One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker ; Confirmation shmonfirmation! ; The narrative fallacy ; Living in the antechamber of hope ; Giacomo Casanova’s unfailing luck : the problem of silent evidence ; The Ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd -- We just can’t predict. The scandal of prediction ; How to look for bird poop ; Epistemocracy, a dream ; Appelles the Painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict? -- Those gray swans of Extremistan. From Mediocristan to Extremistan and back ; The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud ; The aesthetics of randomness ; Locke’s madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places ; The uncertainty of the phony -- The end. Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan -- Epilogue : Yevgenia’s white swans -- Postscript essay: on robustness an fragility, deeper philosophical and empirical reflections. Learning from mother nature, the oldest and the wisest ; Why I do all this walking, or how systems become fragile ; Margaritas ante porcos ; Asperger and the ontological black swan ; (Perhaps) the most useful problem in the history of modern philosophy ; Fourth quadrant, the solution to that most useful of problems ; What to do with the fourth quadrant ; Ten principles for a black-swan-robust society ; Amor fati: how to become indestructible.
|
520 |
|
|aExamines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random.
|
650 |
0
|
|aForecasting.
|
650 |
0
|
|aUncertainty (Information theory)|xSocial aspects.
|
809 |
|
|d003.54|eT143|y2010|tDDC|pBOOK
|